Our lease on my wife's 2017 came up last month. It's gray with the white MB-tex interior, which my wife fell in love with. I had her try the Kia, Leaf, Golf, Bolt, Model 3. Nope, she wanted hers.
Our residual was $23,547, which is considerably more than KBB. Great if we were to give up the car, crappy if we were keeping it.
Went back and forth between MB Financial and our dealer to try to negotiate the buy-out. Dealer came back with $600 off residual.
Looked around at all the off-lease Bs in the area, got super close, but there was something wrong with all the ones that looked good on the interwebs (no rearview camera, smoker's car...)
One of the dealers we went to ended up getting our residual down to $18,381.
We got to keep our own car (it just hit 12,000 miles), and paid over $5k less than residual. So we paid about $26k for a $44k car, basically skirting most of the depreciation to date.
TLDR: Negotiate your lease buy-out!